Jamaica’s 2025 General Election: The Seats To Watch (Transcript)

This article was converted from Checkmate, a political podcast from Tenement Yaad Media. This episode, written and hosted by Keenan Falconer, explores expected battleground seats for Jamaica’s General Elections which will be held on September 3, 2025.

With this election expected to be keenly contested, it could come down to a few key seats. This article explores 6 main seats to look out for; it does not provide an endorsement of any political party or candidate. It is also not a prediction of the winner of any seat or the result of any seat or the elections overall. The following is only an outline of a scientific process in which we have endeavoured to apply as much analytical rigour as possible in determining the seats that are most likely to be the most competitive on the night of the elections, while giving some historical background on the seats in previous general elections.

Methology Explained

First, we compiled all seats that were won by less than 5% of the vote for each of the last three general elections in 2011, 2016 and 2020. This would allow for a fair comparison since these elections are the only ones under the current electoral boundary alignments and the present number of constituencies of 63.

Next, we overlaid the results of the last Local Government Elections (LGE) in 2024 and translated those divisional seats to the constituency seats as if it were a General Election (GE) to determine the seats that would be won by fewer than 1000 votes AND which would also flip in the process, meaning the incumbent member of parliament would lose.

Finally, we define “battleground” seats as those which triangulated the results of these metrics of competitiveness and satisfied all of the aforementioned criteria, that is, these seats were:

Won by less than 1000 votes in the last Local Government Elections

AND they would flip if it were a General Election

AND if they were won by less than 5% of the vote in at least one of the General Elections from 2011-2020.

Six seats satisfied all three of these criteria. Those 6 seats are as follows:

```
Kingston Central
```
```
St. Andrew East Rural 
```
```
St. James Southern
```
```
St. Thomas Eastern
```
```
Clarendon NW
```
```
St. Mary Western
```

St. Andrew East Rural

St. Andrew East Rural in particular satisfied all three criteria and was the only seat that was won by less than 5% of the vote twice in the last three general elections. We can say that this would be the most competitive of the six seats we’ve chosen. In this contest, the Jamaica Labour Party’s (JLP) Juliet Holness, the two-time incumbent, will go up against the People’s National Party’s (PNP) Patrick Peterkin. This seat was formed in time for the 1959 elections when the number of parliamentary seats was expanded from 32 to 45, and was formerly held by former Cabinet Ministers Keble Munn and Eric Bell of the PNP in the 1950s and 1970s respectively. It was also the seat where Roy McGann, the sitting PNP Member of Parliament (MP) was killed in the leadup to the 1980 elections – the first murder of an incumbent political candidate in Jamaica. After that, the seat was won by Joan Gordon Webley who was then contesting it on behalf of the JLP but is now a member of the PNP where she will go up against Juliet Cuthbert-Flynn in St. Andrew West Rural. In 14 contested elections, the JLP has won 6 times to the PNP’s 8, making this seat a traditionally competitive one.

Kingston Central

Over in Kingston Central, which has been a hotbed of political activity this season, with various flashpoints involving both sides, the PNP’s candidate is former Senior Superintendent of Police Steve McGregor and he will challenge the JLP’s incumbent Donovan Williams. Kingston Central has existed since the first general elections under Universal Adult Suffrage in 1944 when it was first won by the JLP’s Frank Pixley, the then Minister of Labour. The seat was split into Kingston West Central and Kingston East Central for the 1959 elections, re-united for the following elections in 1962, before being split in two again in 1976 and being re-united for the final time in 1989 where it has remained ever since. The seat has traditionally been a bastion of PNP support, winning 11 of the 14 elections during which it has been contested, but has become more marginal in recent times. The seat has been home to several heavy-hitters including former Prime Minister Michael Manley, who was first elected to Parliament in 1967 by 43 votes in this seat, former Mayor of Kingston Ralph Brown in 1989, and current Culture Minister, Olivia Babsy Grange in 1993.

St. James Southern

St. James Southern is next on our list. This is the youngest seat of our selection, having been first formed in time for the 1976 elections from the previous St. James South-eastern seat. The incumbent, former Mayor of Montego Bay Homer Davis of the JLP will be contested by Nickeisha Burchell of the PNP. Like Central Kingston, this seat has traditionally voted for the PNP, winning 8 of 10 elections with former Minister of Labour and Agriculture, Derrick Kellier, responsible for 7 of those victories. Like Central Kingston, however, this seat has become more marginal in recent years.

Clarendon North Western

Now we’ll hop over to Clarendon North Western, where the JLP’s Warren Newby, who replaced the JLP incumbent Phillip Henriques, will go up against previous 3-time Member of Parliament Richard Azan, who lost narrowly to Henriques last time out. This seat was also one of the originals in 1944, having first been won by William Linton of the PNP, but has been won the most times by former Education Minister, Edwin Allen of the JLP, with five electoral victories out of the JLP’s nine in total. The PNP has won the seat 8 times, making this constituency one of the most keenly contested historically.

St. Mary Western

St. Mary Western is up next seat, which is currently held by the JLP’s Chairman Robert Montague – a two-time incumbent and overall three-time Member of Parliament, who will be challenged by the PNP’s Omar Woodbine. This seat was also formed in 1944 and first won by the JLP’s Lester Simmonds, who held it for two terms before relinquishing the seat to the PNP’s CLA Stuart for the next three. This seat holds the distinction of being only one of two seats (along with Westmoreland Western) to be contested in all previous 18 general elections in Jamaica, having been in existence continuously from 1944, as well as, being one of only 6 seats to have been contested in the snap elections of 1983 by a third party or independent when the PNP refused to participate in those elections. Of these 18 contests, the JLP has won 8 elections to the PNP’s 10, making this seat a traditionally competitive one.

St. Thomas Eastern

Finally, we move to St. Thomas Eastern, which will be contested by the incumbent, the JLP’s Michelle Charles and the PNP’s Yvonne Rose Shaw, former Mayor of Morant Bay. The seat was formed in 1944 and won by the JLP for the first seven general elections, first by former Agriculture Minister Isaac Barrant three times, then by former Labour Minister Lynden Newland for the next four after Barrant’s death in 1956. After Violet Thompson secured the PNP’s first victory in the constituency in 1976, she gave way to the JLP’s Pearnel Charles Senior in 1980. He held the seat for 13 years before Fenton Ferguson’s run of 6 straight victories which was ended by Charles’ daughter Michelle in 2020. Overall, the JLP has won the seat 10 times, to the PNP’s 7 victories.

You might be wondering, what about some other traditionally close seats? A few of them did not meet all our criteria for this analysis but we’ll list the three other seats that were won by fewer than 1000 votes in the last local government elections in 2024 and would change hands if it were a general election. These were St. James West Central, Westmoreland Western and Manchester Southern. None of these three seats were won by less than 5% in the elections from 2011 to 2020, however, which indicates they may have become a little more competitive of late. Thirteen (13) other seats were also won by fewer than 1000 votes in the last local government elections but these seats would have been retained by the incumbent if they were general elections. These were St. Andrew West Rural, St. Thomas Western, Portland Eastern, St. Mary Southeastern, St. Ann North West, St. James East Central, St. Elizabeth South West, Manchester North East, Clarendon Northern, Clarendon North Central, Clarendon South Eastern, St. Catherine East Central and St. Andrew Eastern. Of these thirteen seats, eleven (11) of them were won by less than 5% at least once in the three general elections in 2011, 2016 and 2020. The two exceptions were Portland Eastern and Clarendon Northern, which were won by more than 5% in all three of those elections, but have become more competitive recently.

South West St. Elizabeth

This seat, along with South East St. Elizabeth is considered the weathervane or bellwether constituency in Jamaica. Both these seats have voted for the party that formed the government every election since 1989. They were both formed in 1959 when the former St. Elizabeth Southern constituency was split in two, having alternated between two giants of St. Elizabethan politics in Jamaica from 1949, rivals and friends – former Speaker of the House, BB Coke and former Prime Minister, Donald Sangster. Former Mayor of Black River, Charles D. Wright, won the South West seat for the first three times, with former PNP Minister, Donald “Danny Buck” Buchanan later winning four straight from 1989 to 2002. Danny Buck’s son Hugh Buchanan would narrowly defeat Christopher Tufton in 2011 by 13 votes before himself succumbing to the two-time incumbent, Agriculture Minister Floyd Green, who will be challenged by the PNP’s Miranda Wellington in the 2025 elections. The JLP has won the South West St. Elizabeth seat 8 times to the PNP’s 6.

St. Andrew Eastern

St. Andrew Eastern has been historically competitive. Except for 2020, no candidate has won this seat by more than 700 votes in its history. This seat was first formed in 1944 and was surprisingly won by the JLP’s Edward Fagan who defeated the PNP President Norman Manley in a shock victory in the inaugural Adult Suffrage elections, preventing Manley’s entrance into the House to take up his position as Leader of the Opposition – a role that had to be played by Dr. Ivan Lloyd for the PNP’s five members of the House. Manley would eventually turn the tables on Fagan in 1949, finally entering the House as Opposition Leader in an improved showing for the PNP in those elections and retaining it in 1955 when he became Chief Minister for the first time. The seat would be temporarily abolished in 1959 with the boundaries being re-drawn to form the St. Andrew East Rural, St. Andrew East Urban and Suburban and later the St. Andrew East Central seats, with Manley taking up these latter two seats in Parliament until his retirement. St. Andrew Eastern would remain abolished until it was re-introduced in 1976, when it was won by Keble Munn, followed by current Tourism Minister Edmund Bartlett in 1980 and 1989 and later his brother St. Aubyn Bartlett in 2002 and 2007. Former Information Minister, Colin Campbell won the seat in the two terms separating the brothers. In 13 contested elections, the JLP has won the seat 7 times, with the PNP winning 6, making it one to watch as the JLP’s two-time incumbent, current Finance Minister Fayval Williams, will be up against the PNP’s Patricia Duncan-Sutherland.

St. Mary South Eastern

We next look at St. Mary Southeastern, where no party has won it with more than 500 votes since 2002 after the dominance of the PNP’s Harry Douglas for four consecutive terms from 1989 to 2007. The seat was formed in 1967 from the old St. Mary Eastern seat which was won by the JLP’s Andrew Ross for four consecutive elections from 1949. Ross’s son, Alva, would continue this dominance in the newly created St. Mary South East seat for another four consecutive terms from 1967 to 1983, creating a political dynasty of 8 consecutive terms for the Ross family in this part of St. Mary. The current two-time incumbent, Dr. Norman Dunn, who first won the seat in a by-election in 2017 after the death of the PNP’s incumbent Dr. Winston Green, will be up against the PNP’s Christopher Brown.

St. James South West St. Elizabeth

Then there's St. James West Central - first formed in 1976 out of the previous St. James Central seat, which was discontinued and later reinstated in 2011 as part of the addition of three new seats to bring the current tally to 63. Historically, St. James West Central has been the most marginal of the seats in the parish of St. James. This seat will be contested by the two-time incumbent and current Minister of Legal and Constitutional Affairs, the JLP’s Marlene Malahoo Forte, and the PNP’s Dr. Andre Haughton. In ten contested elections, this seat has been won 5 times each by the PNP and the JLP, making it highly competitive.

St. Catherine South Eastern

Next up is St. Catherine South Eastern, another seat which has experienced political flashpoints this season and which will be contested by the incumbent, the JLP’ Robert Miller, and the PNP’s Dr. Alfred Dawes. This seat was first formed in 1944 and has been held by political heavyweights such as former PNP Minister of Labour and Agriculture, Jonathan Grant, former PNP Speaker of the House Ripton McPherson, former PNP Minister of Justice and Attorney General, Carl Rattray and former PNP Minister of Information and Culture, Dr. Paul Robertson. The seat was temporarily abolished in 1967 for the introduction of the St. Catherine Eastern seat for two- terms, which itself was abolished before being reinstated as another of the three new parliamentary seats in 2011. St. Catherine South Eastern was reintroduced for the 1976 elections and has remained in existence ever since. In 15 contested elections, the seat has been won by the JLP 6 times, with the PNP winning 9.

Manchester North Eastern

Manchester North Eastern, which has continuously been held by the JLP’s Audley Shaw for 6 consecutive terms since 1993, has seen the party lose two of three divisions in the last local government elections, including the Christiana division which had never been lost by the JLP up to that point, leading some analysts to believe the seat may be vulnerable. Shaw holds the record for being the longest-serving member of parliament in the parish of Manchester, surpassing the PNP’s Winston Jones who served consecutively for 25 years from 1955 to 1980 across three constituencies – Manchester Eastern, Manchester Southern and Manchester Central. With Shaw’s retirement, he has been replaced by former US Ambassador Audrey Marks, who will face off against the PNP’s Valenton Wint – who had been vanquished by Shaw in three previous elections. The seat was formed in 1967 when the former Manchester Northern seat was split into North East and North West Manchester. Manchester North East has been a bastion of JLP support since its inception, with the PNP winning only two of 12 contested elections.

West Rural St. Andrew

Finally, there’s West Rural St. Andrew, currently held by the two-term incumbent, the JLP’s Juliet Cuthbert-Flynn, who will be challenged by former Labourite, the PNP’s Joan Gordon-Webley. The seat was first formed in 1959 when the former St. Andrew Western seat was temporarily abolished before being reinstated for the 1976 elections. One of only 6 seats to have been contested in the snap elections of 1983 when former Education Minister Mavis Gilmour won the last of her 3 consecutive terms, it has been contested 14 other times, with the JLP winning 8 and the PNP 6 times, making it one to watch keenly.